Forum Replies Created
April 8, 2016 at 8:58 am in reply to: The United States, Mexico, and Cuba: cooperation, competition or conflict? #1262
The relationship of Mexico and Cuba has always been characterized as an “indispensable” one, just for matter of “friendship” and support to this country which (dummly) dared defying the “Empire”. Frankly speaking, there is not much for Mexico to gain in this and I don’t think the relationship among the three countries is of any strategic concern if it weren’t for the oil-triangle in the Gulf, the only important matter for negotiation among the three.
Mexican business have an interest in investing in the island, as do American companies. But this won’t lead to any kind of competition between the two North American partners. We only have to look at one figure: one day of economic exchanges between Mexico and the U.S. is not even near to Mexico-Cuba exchanges over a Year: 42 million dollar a month, versus 44 billion… This gives a clear picture about cooperation, conflict, or strategic interest. Social issues, well, I wouldn’t expect many changes either.February 15, 2016 at 9:03 am in reply to: The Results from New Hampshire: More Bad News for Mexico? #1156
I guess I don’t have anything else to add, after what was said by Col. Rojo. Only that hopefully, the undesired candidates (Trump, Cruz, and the two Democrats) will fall during the primaries. And yes, that absurd idea that Democrat Presidents are better for Mexico, has no base whatsoever.
I tend to agree with my colleagues… It is very unlikely that the bill passes before the 2014 elections. While the rhetoric of president Obama might let people believe that he’s willing to push it, reality shows that he’s not trustworthy (i.e. the ObamaCare and how he dealt with that in congress). Most of all, there will always be more ‘urgent’ things that’s this one.
Nevertheless, there’s a coalition of about 600 republican leaders (businesses and agriculture) that are getting organized to lobby GOP representatives. Moreover, some GOP donors are withholding their contributions from members of congress opposing to take action on the immigration bill.
We have also to take into account that republicans are very divided on the issue, and that they just ‘lost’ a battle on the debt ceiling that has its own political costs. They will have to negotiate and find common ground. There are still strong voices that reject all bills on immigration.
If republicans are smart enough, they should gather and make the case for the immigration reform to pass, since that would at least give them some credit, rebuild their credibility and maybe some votes… The problem is they don’t agree on the reform as passed by the Senate.
Some republicans are working on separate bills for the different items of the reform, as approved by the Senate (citizenship, visas and border security).
Views among R and D are widely different and if there’s no agreement, reform will be dead, at least for this year.
And… It will be very easy to blame on republicans for this failure.